Sam Altman's latest article: The Quiet Singularity, a Gentle Revolution

Sam Altman’s latest article “ The Gentle Singularity ^[1] ” states that the “technological singularity” brought about by artificial intelligence has quietly begun in a smoother and more “gentle” way than we imagined. It is not the disruptive mutation depicted in science fiction, but a continuous, exponentially accelerating gradual process.

We have passed a tipping point that will change society dramatically in the future, but as long as we can solve the key "alignment" problem and ensure the universal access to technology, humanity will usher in an extremely prosperous and beautiful future.

The following is the text:

Gentle Singularity

Do you feel that the world is undergoing some profound but subtle changes? We seem to have quietly entered a brand new era. The "technological singularity" described in science fiction - the moment when machine intelligence surpasses humans and the world order is turned upside down - did not come with a violent explosion. Instead, it is like a gentle tide, slowly and steadily submerging our ankles.

This great take-off has already begun.

Yesterday's magic, today's daily life

Once upon a time, robots walking on the streets and AI becoming our all-weather conversation partner were just distant fantasies. Today, although these scenarios have not yet been fully realized, we have created "digital brains" that are far smarter than humans in many fields. For example, the scientific breakthroughs contained in the familiar GPT-4 are the crystallization of the wisdom of countless scientists, and this is just the beginning.

The most peculiar thing about this change is that it is “not peculiar”.

We have adapted too quickly. We have quickly gone from marveling at AI’s ability to write a beautiful poem to expecting it to create a great novel; we have gone from admiring AI’s ability to assist doctors in making life-saving diagnoses to wanting it to directly develop a cure for disease.

Miracles are becoming our daily tools at an alarming rate. This is the essence of the “gentle singularity”: it does not rely on disruptive impacts, but rather reshapes the world imperceptibly by constantly integrating future miracles into our present.

Looking ahead to the next few years, this trend will become clearer:

• •  By 2025 , AI “agents” that can independently perform complex mental tasks (such as writing code) will reshape the software industry.
• •  By 2026 , systems capable of discovering entirely new scientific insights may emerge.
• •  In 2027 , robots that can complete tasks in the real world may be around us.

Accelerating Engines: A Self-Evolving Future

You might ask, why is progress so rapid? Because we have ignited several powerful “self-accelerating engines”.

The core engine is to use AI to create stronger AI . Today, scientists around the world are using AI tools to increase their research efficiency by two to three times. This means that the speed at which we discover new algorithms, explore new materials, and build new theories is increasing exponentially. This is like a primary "recursive self-improvement" - we use today's wisdom as a lever to pry tomorrow's greater wisdom. Research that used to take ten years to complete may only take one year or even one month in the future.

In addition, there are two huge flywheels spinning:

1. 1.  Economic flywheel : The amazing economic value created by AI is attracting an unprecedented influx of capital to build larger data centers and computing facilities. More money means a stronger "brain".
2. 2.  Physical flywheel : The era of robots making robots is not far away. Imagine that when we build the first million humanoid robots, they can take over the entire supply chain from mining minerals, driving trucks to operating factories, to building more robots, more chip factories and data centers. What a magnificent picture of exponential growth that will be!

Eventually, when data center production is fully automated, the cost of “intelligence” will be infinitely close to the cost of electricity. It will become a cheap, ubiquitous social basic resource, just like electricity today.

Life in the 2030s: What changes and what lasts forever?

What will our world look like in the 2030s?

On the one hand, life will continue to be the same at those most fundamentally human levels. We will still love our families, enjoy hanging out with friends, be creative, swim in the lake, and enjoy the sunshine. The human quest for love, beauty, and connection is timeless.

But on the other hand, in those equally important social aspects, the world will become unprecedentedly different. Intelligence and energy, the two shackles that have long bound human civilization, will be completely broken. By then, what an ordinary person can accomplish will far exceed our imagination today.

So, what about work? Many people worry that their jobs will be replaced. This is normal, but history tells us that human adaptability and creativity are endless.

Let's do a thought experiment: if a farmer from a thousand years ago were to see us working today, what would he think? Seeing us sitting in front of the computer and typing away every day, he would probably think that we are all playing some "fake games" because we have already had enough food and clothing and enjoy a luxurious life that he can't imagine.

I hope that when humans a thousand years from now look back at the "work" we are proud of today, they will also feel that it is very "fake". And the new "work" they are engaged in, which we cannot imagine today, will be full of unparalleled meaning and satisfaction for them. Because humans have an advantage that AI can never match: we are born to care about each other's ideas and creations, and we live for "people", not for "machines".

Our Choice: Two Paths to a Bright Future

The journey to superintelligence is accompanied by great opportunities and also by serious challenges. To ensure that we reach that beautiful future, rather than falling into chaos, we must take two key paths:

Step 1: Solve the "alignment" problem and equip AI with a "compass".
What does "alignment" mean? Simply put, it is to ensure that the ultimate goals and behaviors of AI are consistent with the overall and long-term well-being of our human race. The algorithm of social media is an excellent counterexample: it is very "smart" and knows how to exploit the weaknesses of your brain to keep you refreshing, but this obviously goes against your long-term desire to live efficiently and think deeply. We must ensure that the super intelligence of the future helps us become better versions of ourselves, rather than exploiting our weaknesses. We must equip this powerful "brain" with a reliable "moral compass."

The second step is to make superintelligence universal and “decentralized”.
After solving the security problem, we must do our best to make superintelligence cheap, accessible, and not monopolized by any few individuals, companies, or countries . This power is too strong, and it must become the wealth of all mankind. We must believe in the resilience and creativity of society itself. As long as the tools are put in the hands of everyone and a bottom line is set for common compliance, the collective wisdom of mankind will be able to control it, leveraging its strengths and avoiding its weaknesses.

Conclusion: An era for “creators”

We (including OpenAI and the entire industry) are building a "global brain" for the world. It will be deeply personalized and easy for everyone to use. By then, what will limit us will no longer be the threshold of technological realization, but whether we have good enough ideas.

In the past, those who had great ideas but were unable to realize them were often jokingly called "idea kings." Now, they are about to have their moment of glory.

We are heading towards an era where intelligence is as cheap as air. It may sound crazy, but think back, didn’t our predictions for today in 2020 sound crazier than our predictions for 2030 today?

The road ahead was mostly illuminated and the darkness was receding quickly.

May we sail smoothly, smoothly and without any disturbance towards the bright future of super intelligence.